The most important shot in golf

By Neville Idour

What is the most important shot in golf? Okay, I hear you say the next shot.

While that certainly has some truth, the point I want to make is how do we arrive at what the next shot is? — and that just might be the most important shot even though no ball is struck. If this piece stirs some debate it will have achieved its purpose.

I think statistics can tell us a lot about a golfer and where they might want to focus how they approach each shot. So let us have a look at a variety of rounds and tournaments featuring many of the best players as well as New Zealand’s best.

We shall start with a remarkable round at The Northern Trust in the United States last month.

This involved, not surprisingly, Bryson DeChambeau who makes it clear he considers length off the tee a big advantage even if inaccurate. His first round included nine birdies, more than enough to leave him near the lead. Not so. He only had a par round. The other nine holes included just two pars while five bogeys and two doubles snookered his prolific birdie haul.

Behind the eight ball, he was never in contention despite gaining 27 shots overall. Ironically he finished 31st at eight under oar with Brooks Koepka who dropped 14 shots. The winner Tony Finau only gained 24 shots, but dropped just four which spoke volumes about his course management. Second placed Cameron Smith only dropped six shots while third placed Jon Rahm dropped five.

Our own Danny Lee has until this season been one of the more prolific scorer of birdies. He is now consigned to the secondary Korn Ferry Tour until the Fedex Cup concludes, when his medical exemption will give him some status on the main tour to retain his card.

Lee's game will certainly need to improve. At the recent Boise Open on the Korn Ferry Tour he racked up an impressive 20 birdies and one eagle yet only beat a couple of players home tying for 69th on five under par. Too many dropped shots has been his problem this season. The winner (19 under par) gained 24 shots and the runner-up (18 under) gained 23 shots.

Moving to the Women's Open in Scotland where the winner Anna Nordqvist (12 under) scored 18 birdies. Lydia Ko had 16 birdies yet finished 29th at two under par. In 12 of the statistical categories, Ko is in the top three of six of them. Outstanding. Many revolve around her scoring and putting. In average putts per round Ko has a more than eight shot advantage per tournament over Nordqvist, now a three-time major winner, who doesn’t feature in the top tier in any of the stats.

Nordqvist, however, compensates to a degree with her accuracy tee to green. She matches world number one Nelly Korda with driving accuracy at 75 percent and reaches 75 percent of greens in regulation. She only ranks 106th with average drives at 253 yards. Ko’s average drives now reach 259 yards, 14 yards more than a year ago. However her achilles' heel is driving accuracy (146th) at 62 percent. Considering that, her greens in regulation at 71 percent is good.

Collin Morikawa’s win at The Open in Scotland was an example of controlled course management finishing 19 under par with only four dropped shots. Playing the Scottish Open a week prior “taught me how to putt and not leave it short” Morikawa later explained .

“I also employed two grips. Conventional for long putts and my usual grip for others.”

His clarity of mind and patience gave evidence of thorough preparation. As they say with the six Ps and I will leave one P out. “Poor preparation produces **** poor performance.”

Ryan Fox scored 14 birdies but dropped 17 shots at The Open. After 61 holes he was three under par heading for an excellent result. However six over par in the final 11 holes undid that. Rory McIlroy had one of his most frustrating majors with 17 shots gained and 17 dropped.

The legendary Ben Hogan said the tee shot was the most important shot in golf because it opens up play for the next shot. Morikawa’s play at The Open was said to be a throwback to Hogan and the best ball strikers. His fairway misses invariably only found the first cut and his narrow dispersion of shot width set him apart from the field.

No question the drive off the tee is important but it must come with a reasonable degree of accuracy and be a reliable go to shot when the situation demands it. Where a player has a weakness they need to have a strong point to compensate. No one can play well all the time such is the difficulty of golf. And of course the top two inches can sometimes take over with results like a car wreck. It often comes down to minimising the errors, aka dropped shots.

So what can we make of all of this which was not written as a criticism of anyone. One thing that emerges as you follow Ryan Fox’s successful and at times exciting career is that if gained shots were only what counted he would be a top 50 player. There is a fine line to cross but Fox has the ability to do that. It will be an exciting ride if he does.

When we look at the winners what clearly emerges is the ability to mix good scoring with minimal errors which requires good course management. Will I go for the green on this par five, will I go for the front of green pin on this par three with water in front or make sure I find the middle. Yes course management is a vital aspect for all golfers.

Postscript: After filing this story I watched DeChambeau defy all logical rationale with a second round 60 in the BMW Championship in Maryland. He demolished the described ``bear of a course'' with eight birdies and two eagles and no bogeys. No matter he only hit seven of 14 fairways. Also he had made all 16 putts under 13 feet when he reached the 18th with a six footer for a historic 59. A gambler may have lost a bundle as the putt slid by. Mere mortals like this hack can only watch, enjoy and not think too deeply.